Trade One - Analysis

I did a google news search to see if there any news on my investments (RELCAP and NTPC).

On RELCAP, I see:

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com is of the view that one can sell Reliance Capital .

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Reliance Capital is a sell today, it was in a trading range and yesterday it broke down decisively from that range and this on a day when the Nifty finally regain some of its intraday losses but Reliance Capital did not. In any case trading range breakdowns are significant technical patterns and they suggest much lower targets. Reliance Capital is also on way towards Rs 300 and maybe sub Rs 300, it’s just a matter of time, so very bearish job."

Sell Reliance Capital with a target of Rs 345 and stop loss of Rs 365, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on ET Now. The counter is currently trading at Rs 351.60, down 2.9% on the BSE.

Fundamentally I do not see why relcap is getting dragged down. Also, I do not understand why such a huge stop loss (from 350 to 365 for a profit of just 5 points).

ON NTPC, I see:
http://www.stocklinedirect.com/stock-tips-NTPC.html says NTPC is very bearish and can be expected to move towards 164! At the same time, http://tips.appuonline.com/tips/234409--STOCK-TIPS-TODAY-Buy-NTPC-Apr/ says the 170 call option could reach 4... that means, we could touch 174+ !! An april 8 article says that NTPC may get into a FSA that will benefit NTPC. See http://www.moneycontrol.com/smementor/mentorade/starting-up/cil-may-sign-fuel-pacts50-power-firms-including-ntpc-689995.html. So, clearly the short term moves of NTPC will come from the news on FSA. If NTPC is one of the beneficiary, it will get a nice share of CIL's profits and can go really upward! This FSA should come by month end. So, this expectation should keep NTPC at 160+ levels and might even push it to 170+ levels if I am lucky.

I checked the put/call movements and here's what I saw:







Conclusion: From all the research described above, it feels to me that NTPC is bubbling on CIL FSA and will trade broadly in the range of 160 to 175 range. Charts of Reliance capital is bad and all brokerages are giving a bearish signal. Also, the put call number show that it does not have potential to go above 365. So, I expect this stock to either go down towards 300 because of technical breakdown or will hang around 345 to 360 levels. I have no reason to panic. But, my probability of hitting a jackpot is not great... looks like I will close within two days with a profit of 7k. Let's wait and see.