Friday, April 13, 2012

Trade One - What Next?

Our next step is to know the stop losses and have a plan for monday.

I do not wish to take a loss more than 7000 per trade. NTPC lot size is 2000. So, I have the luxury of waiting till it goes down by 3.5 points. With a lot size of 500, reliance capital can take 14 point loss. So, our stop losses are:

NTPC: 163.7
Reliance Capital: 365.65

A quick check on http://www.yourmoneysite.com/companies/reliance-capital-ltd/RELCAPITAL suggests that there are 3 sell calls and 2 buy calls. 2 of the 3 sell calls are coming from Ashwani and Sudharshan who are very respected analysts. So, I am convinced that this is not a bad move. Also, most recent call is a sell call.

Same check on NTPC gave me 2 buy and 2 sell calls. Sudharshan had given a sell call on April 9th with target of 160. This is bad for me! However, a recent buy call gives some solace. Next time I should find some stock with more buy calls than sell.

Here's my monday strategy:
If both calls go on loss at opening, I will place stop losses at above mentioned levels. Market is expected to open gap down. So, hopefully reliance capital should go down and get me money.

If both stocks are in profit (and sum of profits > 7000), I will let the profit run and lock the profit with a stop loss on both stocks such that even if one of them turns back, I get an assured 7k profit.

If both stocks are in profit but not greater than 7k, I will just put my stop losses and give more time to the stocks.

If one of them is in profit and if sum of profit and loss is > 7k, I will lock profits with higher stop losses as mentioned before.

If one of them is in profit and the sum of profits is small, I will just put 7k stop losses on both sides and give my stock some time.

I strongly believe my chances of hitting a 14k loss is very very low. One of the two stocks hitting 7k stop losses is low but possible. In most counts, I should be able to close both the trades either on monday or tuesday with a sum of profit of 7k or slightly more. My margin blocked is 46816 for NTPC and 42198 for RELCAP. Expected brokerage cost is Rs. 900/- including buy and sell for both trades.

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